Ecommerce Share of Retail Sales (2021–2027)
With the rising dominance of online shopping, it’s no surprise that the ecommerce share of retail sales has been on the increase in recent years.
The numbers surrounding the growth of online shopping say it all. Just two years ago, the online retail market share was 18.9%. That is to say that of every $100 spent by consumers, $18.90 was online.
In 2022, this figure held steady, while global ecommerce sales grew by 6.5%, to $5.8 trillion. Analysts predict the global ecommerce share of retail sales will rise this year and hit 19.5%. By 2027, it is forecast to hit 23%—a 4.1 percentage point increase in just six years.
The growing ecommerce market share should come as no surprise, given the increased accessibility and affordability of mobile devices, as well as increased internet use and access worldwide.
Despite the increase, this most recent outlook is a downward revision from an earlier one by experts. Analysts say this is because of the current volatile economic situation, and attribute the slowdown in growth to the economic challenges in China, which accounts for more than half of the global ecommerce sales.
Ecommerce market share in the United States
Let’s zoom in on one of the world’s largest ecommerce markets and have a look at the percentage of the total US retail sales that take place online.
In 2023, the ecommerce market share in the US is expected at 15.6%, totaling over $1.1 trillion in ecommerce sales. This figure is set to continue rising over the next few years. In 2024, the US ecommerce market share is forecast at 16.6%, before rising further to 17.8% in 2025.
By 2027, this will have surpassed 20% to hit 20.6%, bringing the total retail ecommerce sales to more than $1.7 trillion. In other words, of every $1 spent on US consumers, more than $0.20 will be through online channels. This marks an impressive 10.7 percentage point increase in less than a decade.
The growing adoption of ecommerce especially since 2019 can largely be attributed to the coronavirus pandemic, which forced consumers to stay home and purchase products online. Analysts say that the majority of this growth in the US ecommerce market share will come from the country’s largest retailers, particularly those that provide efficient delivery and click-and-collect services.